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November property prices up 1.4 per cent, says Halifax
Tuesday 8th December 2009According to the Halifax, house prices increased by 1.4 per cent in November, showing the fifth successive monthly lifting prices by four per cent or GBP 6,803 so far this year.
Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: “The recovery in house prices since the spring has been driven by increased demand for property, largely due to the improvement in affordability for existing homeowners and first-time buyers who can raise the necessary deposit.
Somewhat higher demand has combined with a low level of properties available for sale to push up prices. Further ahead, the prospects for the market will depend on how the UK economy evolves and whether there is a significant increase in the supply of properties for sale. Overall, our view is that house prices will be flat during 2010."
Prices from September to November were 3.7 per cent higher than the previous three months. This is the biggest increase on a three monthly basis since November 2006.
Prices have increased by 8.5 per cent since reaching a trough in April 2009, which is an increase in the average price of GBP 13,174. This follows a decline of 23 per cent between August 2007 and April 2009.
House prices in November were still were 1.6 per cent lower on an annual basis but this is a massive improvement on the low of -17.7% in April.
Howard Archer, spokesman from economist Global Insight, said: “The Halifax data contrast markedly with that of the Nationwide which showed house prices rising at a significantly reduced rate of 0.5 per cent month-on-month in both November and October. These were the smallest increases reported by the Nationwide since April and were down appreciably from increases of 0.9% in September and 1.4% in both August and July. Nevertheless, the year-on-year increase in house prices picked up to 2.7% in November on the Nationwide's measure."
He added: “A relapse in house prices will be even more likely if the recent firming trend leads to more properties coming onto the market, thereby moving the supply/demand balance away from vendors towards buyers.”
In conclusion, he said house prices may well rise further in the near term from their early-2009 lows, we suspect that they they will be prone to relapses in 2010.
“Indeed, we believe house prices will fall by around five per cent next year, and would not be surprised if the slippage is greater still. Much will clearly depend on whether the economy can build a recovery after a probable returns to growth in the fourth quarter, how much further unemployment rises, how much earnings rise, how quickly and to what extent credit conditions ease, and how many properties come on to the market over the coming months. On the positive side for the housing market, interest rates seem unlikely to rise for some considerable time to come and will then probably increase only gradually,” he said.
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