Henry Pryor: Blog

Friday 3rd June 2011

The Halifax survey at the end of May interviewed 8,000 ‘not-yet home-owners’ and found that two-thirds never expect to own their own home.

The news was seized upon by the media as an indication that the days of home ownership in this country are, like my ability to drink more than five pints, a fading memory. 

Quite what the point is of asking a bunch of people who have no qualification what they think about future trends in property beats me, but one mustn’t let that get in the way of a successful press release.

This spring, both the traditional Easter bounce and the added bonus of a royal wedding weekend should have given the housing market a great kick-start for the summer. 

But like the weather, it looks like we are experiencing drought conditions.

Before the usual suspects start to rant about “It’s not the same in my patch”, I accept that national statistics don’t reflect the rainfall in Scotland, and that it’s hard to understand people looking to make a quick turn on a billionaire’s flat in One Hyde Park in London when you are trying to sell homes in the North-East.

So here are the main numbers for May. Remember that most of these figures in fact go back to April and that volumes quoted by the Land Registry are actually for February. The taxman (as usual) is keener, so the volumes from HMRC are only a month out of date. 

Sales across the UK (recorded by HMRC) were 73,000. Down 7.6% on last April and almost half the 138,000 sold in April 2007.

Having said that, sales of homes over £1m (Land Reg) were up 13.7% in England & Wales and 8.5% in London. Sales of homes between £1.5m and £2m in London were up 44%!

London usually makes up 58% of £1m-plus sales but accounted for 62% in February. Across England & Wales, sales of £1m-plus homes would usually represent just 0.72% but made up 1.18%. Perhaps those buying more expensive homes aren’t relying on mortgage finance in quite the same way that they are at lover levels.

There is about 14 months’ worth of inventory on the market, which we would traditionally expect to be closer to 12 months.