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Mortgage lending beat forecasts to rise 30% in the last 12 months and should rise almost 18% in 2014 to more than £200 billion.

November saw an estimated £17 billion of gross mortgage lending, a 4% drop on October's £17.6 billion.

But that is 30% higher than the £13 billion lent in November last year, according to latest CML figures.

Gross lending for 2013 looks set to reach £170 billion, nearly 9% higher than the £156 billion the CML originally forecast, chief economist Bob Pannell said.

"But that is still a far cry from the £363 billion experienced at the height of the lending boom in 2007.

"New rules hardwire in a more risk-averse lending environment for the future and so, while we expect lending to rise in line with better economic conditions, the next two years are unlikely to see lending levels getting very far above £200 billion."

But David Copland, director of mortgages at LSL Property Services, said the CML’s forecast that the market won't top £200 billion is "overly pessimistic".

"This year’s market has exceeded even the most optimistic of forecasts and, despite the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), I expect next year’s to do the same”

Andy Frankish, new homes director at Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB), predicted plenty more growth in 2014, as pent-up demand from first-time buyers and second steppers hits the market. “Recent growth came before Help to Buy 2 loans have even been approved, so we can certainly expect bigger things in the new year."

Richard Sexton, director of e.surv chartered surveyors, said 2013 is finishing on a high note with lending set to smash forecasts and the number of high-LTV borrowers doubling in a year. "However even this still falls short of the soaring heights we saw in 2007, showing there is still room for manoeuvre."

Despite November's slowdown and the impending withdrawal of the Funding for Lending Scheme for residential mortgages, Sexton predicted a strong start to 2014. "MMR regulations set to come into force in April may encourage lenders to build a pipeline to offset any slowdown."

Peter Williams, executive director of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA), said mortgage lending can grow under its own steam without the FLS.

The combination of rising lending and falling arrears and repossessions suggest that a responsible, risk-adverse approach is deeply engrained in the market’s culture, he said.

Paul Hunt, managing director of Phoebus Software, said Help to Buy has been effective in boosting the number of first-time buyers and those with small deposits.

"We’ve already seen a boost in attractive mortgage deals across the board, and as the market gains further momentum in the New Year, we should see more competitive rates reach a growing pool of borrowers.”

There will most certainly be another lending dip in December but the first quarter of 2014 should be strong, said Ashley Brown, director of broker Moneysprite.

"However, when you think that gross lending in 2013 is still likely to end up nearly £200 billion below that of 2007, you get an idea of just how far things fell. 

"It feels like a booming market but we are still way below the historical norm. That's how bad things got."

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