House Buyer Bureau reveal that transactions could drop by 17% in spring 2023 next year. The property purchasing specialist claim that the market is likely to dwindle during December as the market winds down for the Christmas period. 

According to previous research, the level of transactions seen over the last six months is already down by almost a quarter on the previous six months. The increasing cost of mortgage prices is said to be the reason for the dip.

Previous research by House Buyer Bureau found that increasing mortgage costs have dampened buyer enthusiasm. 

The House Buyer Bureau analysis

In the most recent analysis, the average level of transactions seen over each month and quarter of the year going back over the last 10 years was evaluated. How market activity is impacted by seasonality was also analysed.

The research shows that the final quarter of the year is the busiest for the UK property market. During this period there are an average of 86,397 transactions.

The first quarter of the year is when it all slows down on average over the last 10 years, with only 71,863 transactions completed during Q1. That is a 17% drop compared to the final quarter of the previous year. 

Based on the average transactions each month, the market slowdown is forecasted to kick in during December. 

On average, the level of transactions to complete in December is typically 2% below November. This level of monthly transactions tends to plummet to an annual low of 63,974 in January.

Managing director of House Buyer Bureau, Chris Hodgkinson, commented: “The property market has weathered a tough period in recent weeks and we’ve already seen damage done in the form of dwindling buyer demand and a resulting drop in transaction levels, as buyers struggle to overcome the increased cost of borrowing.” 

“Unfortunately, this decline in transactions is set to get quite a bit worse before it gets any better and the impending seasonal slowdown which usually kicks in from December will only add to the woes of the nation’s homesellers.”

“The good news is that once this winter market freeze thaws in the spring, the nation’s buyers will emerge from hibernation and we should see the market start to build momentum once again.”

“Although this will do little to help those who are currently trying to sell and suffering from a reduced level of interest in their property.”