What’s going to happen in the housing market next year?

What’s going to happen in the housing market next year?


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Buyer sentiment has softened compared with earlier this year, according to the latest consumer research from Savills, in the wake of the General Election and the first Labour government Budget.

But buyers remain more positive about their budgets compared with the previous two years.

Savills survey of just under 1,000 prime home movers, which took place over the first two weeks of November, revealed that the net balance of those who are more committed to moving has fallen since the question was last asked in March. 

However, some cohorts are feeling more encouraged than others. When asked about the impact of the Budget on their commitment to move, those who are looking to get their first foot on the property ladder (+39%), and those who are looking at property valued between £250k-£500k (+23%) were the most incentivised to move.

“Movers have been acting with a degree of caution over the past couple of months as they wait for the Bank of England to lower the base rate and for the dust to settle following the new Government’s first Budget.

“However, the announcement that the nil rate stamp duty threshold will be lowered is expected to result in a flurry of first-time buyer activity, and our research revealed that younger buyers in their 20s and 30s were the most likely to be active in the market in the short term,” comments Nick Maud, director of research at Savills. 

With further rate cuts in sight, buyer budgets remain robust. 1 in 10  (12%) agree that they’ll be looking to increase their budgets – while the majority (69%) will be keeping budgets the same.

Upsizers, who are typically leveraged buyers, were most likely to increase budgets in the coming months (net balance of +5%), while 1 in 5 investors stated that they’d most likely decrease budgets (net balance of -22%).

“Changes to the Stamp Duty Land Tax additional surcharge is having the most profound impact on decision making for prime buyers.

“While investors are now most likely to decrease budgets in the wake of the announcement, more than half of respondents agreed this Budget measure would have an impact on their decision to move over the next 12 months, ahead of changes to inheritance tax and the abolition of the ‘non-doms’ tax status.”

Two-thirds (61%) of respondents felt strongly (ranked 1 or 2 out of 5 in terms of importance) that the changes to the additional stamp duty surcharge would decrease their chance of moving or purchasing a new property in the next 12 months, according to Savills.

Compared with 37% and 17% who felt strongly that changes to the non-doms tax status and inheritance tax would hinder them moving.”

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