The looming stamp duty deadline in England is a potential dampener for some buyers and sellers in 2025, warns Rightmove.

The portal’s real-time data is capturing the impact on different groups of movers. 

The latest snapshot identifies signs that sellers of smaller properties in higher-priced areas are trying to trade up or just sell before the April 2025 deadline to avoid the higher stamp duty charges, despite now needing to act very quickly. 

In the last four weeks, the number of sellers of typical first-time buyer homes with two bedrooms or fewer in London coming to market is up by 20%, the most of any regional market sector. 

In second place is the South East up 16%, which is also the second most expensive region. 

Meanwhile, prices are holding up most strongly for first-time-buyer type properties in more affordable areas, which are set to be less affected by the stamp duty changes, as most first-time-buyer homes are well under the resuming £300,000 tax threshold. 

Prices for typical first-time-buyer homes in the North East are up by 1.0% this month, starkly contrasting this month’s national 1.7% fall across all property types.

Rightmove says there are positive signs for the 2025 market, and meaningful mortgage rate falls would be a big boost to consumer confidence and pockets, there is still caution over how next year may play out. 

There is uncertainty over how rising stamp duty may affect activity later in 2025, as well as the level of wage growth.

“The stamp duty changes are a cloud over the market at the moment, with some groups much more impacted than others, and therefore keen to avoid the additional charges” explains Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science.

“After the important first three months of the year in 2025, a lot depends on how quickly normal activity is resumed with higher stamp duty in England. A Bank Rate cut and some mortgage rate falls early on in the year would help to settle the market and provide a boost to sentiment and consumer confidence.” 

Meanwhile across all sectors of the housing market, asking prices have fallen over the past month –  but it’s just the seasonal norm according to Rightmove 

New seller asking prices dropped by a seasonal 1.7% (£6,395) this month to £360,197, in line with the usual December monthly fall with sellers’ pricing power diminishing as Christmas approaches.

Even so, prices end the year 1.4% above December 2023, and Rightmove predicts that new seller asking prices will rise by 4% next year, with forecast mortgage rate drops set to further improve affordability and stimulate market activity.

While the market is slowing as it always does in the build-up to Christmas, activity continues to remain strong compared to last year. The portal says this is laying the groundwork for a potentially busy Boxing Day bounce, which has become a tradition in recent years as early-bird buyers and sellers flood onto Rightmove.

Tim Bannister, director of property science at Rightmove, says: “Each year, our real-time data can pinpoint the exact moment that the turkey is finished, family games run out of steam, mobile devices are picked up, and prospective movers flood onto Rightmove and get their 2025 move started.

“If this year is anything like recent years, those early birds who get their search started the day after the festivities are over are likely to be rewarded with plenty of fresh property choice to consider.”

The number of sales being agreed is up by 22% compared with this time last year, while the number of new buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale is up by 13%. 

This momentum is a good sign for a Boxing Day activity bounce, says Rightmove. 

The prospect of last year’s bounce encouraged a record number of Boxing Day sellers to launch their properties onto the market in 2023. The resulting surge in fresh choice creates a virtuous circle of market activity, attracting potential New Year buyers – last year, buyer demand jumped by 273% between the Christmas Day lull and Boxing Day.