Mixed messages – transaction tumble over a month, but are up over the year

Mixed messages – transaction tumble over a month, but are up over the year


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Government figures released over the weekend show that the provisional seasonally adjusted number of UK residential transactions in November was 92,640.

This was 13% higher than in November 2023 but 8% lower than October 2024. 

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted number of residential transactions in November 2024 ws 104,440. That was 19% higher than November 2023 but 6% lower than October 2024 

What do these mixed messages mean?

Mark Harris – chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients – says: “Swap rates have been mostly trending upwards since mid-December as the outlook suggests fewer rate cuts this year than previously thought. Despite this, a number of lenders including Halifax, HSBC and Leeds Building Society have made significant reductions to their fixed rates as they attempt to build a pipeline of business for the new year.

“However, other lenders have moved in the opposite direction and have raised some rates, including Skipton, Virgin and Clydesdale, while TSB has increased the pricing of more products than it has reduced, and Accord has increased as many rates as it has cut. 

“Lenders who are increasing their pricing may be more sensitive to Swap rate rises than bigger lenders who have more funds in savings to call upon and are better able to absorb any increases in Swaps.”

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, states: “A quite significant increase in transaction numbers compared with this time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active. Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the growing confidence in the market is promising.

“The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around the spring, once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end. Let’s hope a further cut in interest rates comes before then, helping the market stay productive and confident.”

Meanwhile other responses to the figures have come from property figures.

Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, comments: “A dip in transaction numbers in November compared with the previous month is always concerning as transactions are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations. 

“However, the numbers need to be put into context as buyers and sellers brought forward transactions to October amid concerns as to what the Budget might hold, boosting activity that month.

“Two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with further cuts expected this year, there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market. While some lenders have reduced their fixed-rate mortgages this month, helping ease affordability, increased stock means buyers have more choice so are in a stronger negotiating position and remain price sensitive.”

And Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, adds: “November’s activity was particularly strong on an annual basis, but did struggle to keep up the pace after such a busy October. The Chancellor’s Autumn statement propelled the market into heightened activity. 

“Although housing wasn’t the central focus, confirmation that the temporary Stamp Duty change will end in April has driven serious buyers to act. This looming cost adds another layer for consideration, especially with mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high. We expect this elevated level of activity to continue through the early months of 2025, as buyers push to complete their transactions ahead of the Stamp Duty deadline.

“Across the Jackson-Stops network, we anticipate house prices to stay firm in 2025 whilst some local markets may see price increases of up to 4%. Market activity will be driven by buyers’ pursuit of stability amid economic uncertainty. First-time buyers will be eager to secure their place as rental costs rise, upsizers will seek more space for growing families, and downsizers will aim to simplify their lives and capitalise on current market conditions.”

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