The latest fall in inflation to 2.6% suggests that a further base rate cut at the next meeting of the MPC is now inevitable, however mortgage cuts may not follow suit, according to experts.

Peter Stimson, head of product at MPowered Mortgages, says: “In an age of global uncertainty, sure bets are vanishingly rare. But the latest inflation data has created one – that the Bank of England will cut its base rate next month. With both headline and core CPI easing off in March, the Bank’s ratesetters no longer have a reason not to cut when they meet on 8th May, and plenty of reasons to do so.”

He believes that the MPC will look to cut rates to “focus on shoring up the economy from the recessionary juggernaut fuelled and dispatched by the White House.”

However, mortgage rate cuts are unlikely, according to Stimson. “Swap rates have fallen since Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement and many lenders have responded by cutting their mortgage rates accordingly. In other words, they have already ‘priced in’ a base rate cut in May and may not have scope to reduce their rates again so soon.”

John Phillips, CEO of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, called the fall in inflation: “A bit of a hollow victory, given that the new financial year brings new tax changes and price hikes which will undoubtedly add fuel to the inflationary fire. That’s not even considering any potential fallout from a tit-for-tat tariff war which rumbles on.”

He agrees it should lead to further base rate cuts. “A positive reading on inflation is likely to help influence the MPC’s decision next month on interest rates, as will the need to stimulate growth amid the threat of economic uncertainty.”  

Paul Noble, CEO of Chetwood Bank, agrees: “The inflation figures suggest a fragile but promising momentum – a second month of stability that hints we may be turning a corner, though not yet out of the woods. For many, this will feel less like a breakthrough and more like a cautious exhale, especially given the many troubling factors surrounding the economy.  That said, looming global pressures, including President Trump’s tariff policies, could still feed into rising costs in the months ahead.”