October saw the biggest monthly rise in UK house prices since January this year as property experts predicted the average home could break the £300,000 barrier by Christmas.

The value of the average UK home increased in October by 0.6%, or £1,647, Halifax revealed in its house price index over the weekend. 

That brings the average property price up to £299,862 – the highest on record – while annual growth also increased to 1.9% from 1.3%.

Experts say there’s more to come. 

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, comments: “Demand from buyers has held up well coming into autumn, despite a degree of uncertainty in the market, with the number of new mortgages being approved recently hitting its highest level so far this year.

“There is no doubt that affordability remains a challenge for many. Average fixed mortgage rates are currently around 4% and likely to ease down further, but with property prices at record levels, moving home can feel like a stretch.

“Rising costs for everyday essentials are also squeezing disposable incomes, which affects how much people are willing or able to spend on a new property.

“Even so, while there has been some volatility, the market has proven resilient over recent months, as many buyers opt for smaller deposits and longer terms to help make the numbers work. With house prices rising more slowly than incomes for almost three years now, we expect the trend of gradually improving affordability to continue.”

Brokers have been giving their response to the Newspage service.

Babek Ismayil, chief executive at homebuying platform OneDome, predicts that the £300,000 barrier could be broken before the end of the year. “With the average home now approaching £300,000, we could see prices tip over that landmark figure before the year ends – a clear sign of the market’s underlying strength.”

Ismayil adds: “A stronger-than-expected rise in house prices in October underlines just how resilient the housing market has been this year. Despite higher living costs and lingering affordability pressures, many buyers are adapting to the new normal of 4% mortgage rates and re-engaging with the market. Sellers, too, are adjusting their expectations, leading to more realistic pricing and a healthier balance between supply and demand. 

“The Bank of England’s decision yesterday to hold rates will steady nerves, even if it stops short of reigniting activity. A cut would have injected fresh life into the market, but for now, the absence of further hikes is enough to keep confidence intact. The outlook for early 2026 depends heavily on how quickly borrowing costs fall, but there’s a sense that we’re moving back towards normality.”

Ken James, director at London-based Contractor Mortgage Services, notes that the figures show there is a “glimmer of hope” in the market.

“House prices in the UK unexpectedly ticked up in October, according to Halifax, offering a small glimmer of confidence in what has been a nervous and uncertain market.  Despite cautious buyers, limited housing supply appears to be keeping values supported. We do need to be cautious though as the mood remains fragile. The market isn’t booming, it’s balancing.”

Michelle Lawson, director at Fareham-based Lawson Financial, said the housing market is not necessarily bouncing back.

She adds: “These figures are interesting given the market is relatively flat. Chains are taking weeks to come together and there is a lot of choice on the market. We are still seeing first time buyers buy but our recent ones have bought with no onward chain.  Whilst we are excited to see a + sign, prices are largely stagnant year on year with marginal fluctuation. Markets already have the jitters over the Budget, it will be interesting to see what happens in the aftermath.”

And Justin Moy, managing director at Chelmsford-based EHF Mortgages, agrees, adding: “These surprising figures don’t reflect the sentiment of the property market most mortgage brokers are reporting. Whilst mortgage rates have improved, the vast majority of potential buyers are biding their time waiting for the budget announcement. 

“Buy To Let purchases have also fallen significantly. There may be some time lag on these figures so don’t be surprised if we see a fall over the coming months.”