High-end housing market weakens ahead of mansion tax

High-end housing market weakens ahead of mansion tax


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Stacked coins with a house-shaped sign saying Property Tax.
Stacked coins with a house-shaped sign saying Property Tax.

Average house prices in England and Wales stood at £352,500 in November, virtually unchanged from October, says the latest e.surv Acadata House Price Index.

Market activity slowed notably in November as buyers and sellers paused for clarity ahead of the Budget. While the seasonal bounce in October provided a brief uplift in transactions, confidence dipped again, particularly around taxation following the budget announcement.

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All regions posted annual price falls in October, with London (-5.0%), the South East (-6.1%), and the South West (-4.9%) seeing the sharpest declines. Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and the North West showed slight monthly improvements, reinforcing the growing north-south divergence in market performance.

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While the forthcoming Council Tax surcharge on £2 million+ homes won’t take effect until April 2028, the market has already begun to react. With around 85% of affected homes located in London and the South East, early signals suggest dampened enthusiasm at the top end, even as broader housing affordability subtly improves.

Rob Owens, Head of Research at e.surv comments: “After October’s seasonal bounce, the market paused in November as many awaited the Autumn Budget. While average selling prices held steady at around £352,500, this marks a shift from the declines seen earlier in the year and suggests we may be entering a more settled phase.

“Regional dynamics remain a key part of the story. Southern England, particularly London and the South East, continues to weigh down national figures, while parts of the North are showing greater resilience – and in some cases, modest monthly growth.

“The proposed Council Tax surcharge on £2 million-plus homes is already having a subtle effect, even ahead of its 2028 implementation, and it’s likely to continue shaping buyer behaviour at the top end. While its direct impact will be narrow, centred on high-value markets, its influence on sentiment is more widespread.

“Looking ahead, steady wage growth and the prospect of base rate cuts could support a gradual recovery in 2026, particularly if policy continues to nudge affordability in the right direction.”

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