Moneyfacts’ average two-year fix residential mortgage rate has risen from 4.83% at the start of March to 5.35% today.
It’s the highest since March 2025, adding around an extra £900 per year to the cost of borrowing £250,000 over 25 years.
Moneyfacts’ average five-year fix residential mortgage rate has risen from 4.95% at the start of March to 5.39% today.
It’s the highest since July 2024, adding around an extra £775 per year to the cost of borrowing £250,000 over 25 years.
Two- and five-year swaps are now around 1 percentage point higher than at the start of the conflict and at their highest level in more than a year (January 2025) – to now sit around 4-4.25%.
These rates underpin mortgage pricing and reflect market expectations for central bank rates.
Analysis from INTEREST by Moneyfacts, looking at more than 30 years of historic rates data, has shown that average mortgage rates stabilise at around 1.5 percentage points above Base Rate.
If the conflict continues to disrupt the global economy, and the Base Rate hits 4-4.25% as markets are predicting, it may mean average rates on new mortgages stabilising at around 5.50% to 5.75%.
Given the volatility of events this is subject to change in either direction.
This could add an extra £1,000 – £1,500 per year to the cost of borrowing £250,000 over 25 years compared to the overall Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate (4.89%) at the beginning March.
Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, says: “Swap rates, which underpin mortgage pricing, have risen sharply following the decision to hold the base rate at 3.75%, with markets interpreting commentary from the Bank of England as leaving the door open to rate rises amid ‘Trumpflation’ fears.
“With two- and five-year swaps now sitting at their highest level in more than a year, lenders are once again facing higher funding costs, and this will feed through into mortgage pricing.
“Moneyfacts analysis of more than 30 years of historic rates data shows mortgage rates have historically averaged around 1.5 percentage points above Base Rate.
“If markets continue to price in one or two rate rises, this could see average new mortgage rates stabilise at around 5.50% to 5.75%.
“That would leave borrowers paying £1,000 to £1,500 more per year on a typical £250,000 mortgage compared to just a few weeks ago.
“While a quicker resolution to the conflict in the Middle East could ease pressure on rates, the reality is that a more volatile world is a more expensive world.
“Even though the most competitive deals will remain below average, anyone looking to buy or remortgage this year needs to prepare for higher costs than previously expected.”
