The number of households in England is projected to rise by 17% to 27.6 million by 2040 causing significant demographic change.
This would intensify pressure on an already stretched housing market, according to new research by multi-disciplinary development consultancy Marrons.
The findings highlight a growing imbalance between supply and demand, with more than 1.3 million households on local authority housing registers in 2025 and more than 320,600 social homes projected to be lost by 2040 if current trends continue.
The largest household growth is projected in the South West (20%), followed by the East Midlands, East of England, Greater London and the South East (18% each), while the North East is forecast to experience the slowest rise at 14%.
At the same time, the housing market faces a generational squeeze – first-time buyer households (25-44) are set to grow by 14% to 16.1 million, student-age and young professional households (19-24) by 9% to 710,800, and later living households (65+) by 36% to 9.4 million – reshaping demand across all tenures and housing types.
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “We are heading towards a structural mismatch between the homes England needs and the homes being delivered.
“Household growth is accelerating across all age groups, but supply – particularly in social and affordable housing – is not keeping pace.
Difficult and costly to resolve
“The scale of projected losses to social housing, combined with record waiting lists, points to a system under sustained strain. Without intervention, affordability pressures will intensify and access to homeownership will become increasingly out of reach for many.
“The proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework, particularly policy HO7, place greater weight on delivering homes that meet evidenced need. This makes robust, up-to-date data more important than ever in supporting planning applications and unlocking sites.
“The challenge isn’t just how many homes are built but whether they reflect the way people actually live – and will live – in the years ahead. Without a step change in delivery, we risk locking in a housing crisis that will become far more difficult and costly to resolve.”
Originally published in May 2024, Marrons has drawn on the latest datasets to update its Housing 2040 report. The new edition incorporates Office for National Statistics 2022-based household projections, published in October 2025 – the first in more than five years – covering overall 16+ household growth and age demographic breakdowns.
Supplementing this is local authority housing register data for 2025, providing a real-time view of unmet social housing need, alongside social housing stock movements from 2014/15 to 2023/24, including demolitions, Right to Buy sales and new completions.
The full findings, published in Housing 2040: Phase II, provide a region-by-region snapshot of England’s projected housing needs – offering a roadmap for developers, investors, registered providers and local authorities to plan homes that meet current and future demand.
