Financial outsourcer HLM is predicting repossession numbers to be between 34,000 and 36,000 this year – below the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ forecast of 40,000.
Last week, the CML said repossessions are running at 7% below last year’s levels.
If this trend continued for the rest of the year, then the number of repossessions in 2011 will be 33,760 – almost identical to HML’s original forecast of 33,257 issued in February.
HML, which says it uses sophisticated arrears and repossession methodology to generate its forecasts, has now raised its forecast slightly.
Neil Warman, HLM chief commercial and finance officer, said: “Having reviewed our repossession forecasts following the publication of the first-half figures, our current estimate for the total number of repossessions in 2011 is that they will be the range of 34–36,000, but below the CML forecast of 40,000.
“At the end of last year our opinion was that the economy would continue to be rocky throughout 2011, relieving pressure on interest rates, and this assumption has been borne out.
“Maintenance of historically low interest rates, along with a maturing mortgage market and lender forbearance, have been the key factors as to why repossession rates have been lower than many commentators had anticipated.
“As for 2012, the number of repossessions will begin to rise in the latter half of 2011 as pressure on household budgets continues to increase, and this trend is expected to continue into 2012. Consequently, 40–45,000 repossessions can be expected for 2012.”
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