Brokers’ Views - What Next for Interest Rates?

A series of financial experts give their prediction for next week’s Bank of England monetary policy committee decision - No rise? A small rise? A big rise? No change? And does the UK Federal Reserve’s decision to increases rates across the Atlantic sway the Bank of England’s hands?

Jamie Lennox, director at Dimora Mortgages: “The fact the Fed are still hiking when inflation is at 3.0 per cent in the US will create fireworks at the next MPC meeting and could light a rocket under the UK base rate. It comes as a stark reminder that, despite the latest inflation data, we are still a long way from being out of the woods. The odds of a base rate hike of 0.5 per cent in early August have now surely increased.”

Lewis Shaw, founder of Shaw Financial Services: “Even this relatively minor policy sneeze from the US could translate into a severe cold for UK house prices … Unfortunately, because the Bank of England was so far behind the curve when the inflationary spiral started, their hand is now forced, which inevitably means more pain for the UK economy.”

Craig Fish, director at Lodestone Mortgages: “This is a stark wake up call for anyone thinking that the MPC wouldn’t increase base rate further. The US are only 1.0 per cent away from their inflation target yet still feel the need to increase rates. It’s now likely that we will see at least the same, if not a 0.5 per cent increase. Hopefully this won’t upset swap rates and lead to more mortgage rate increases, as we’ve seen positive signs.”

Justin May, managing director at EHF Mortgages: “Again we all hang on how the Swap markets will react. With a few days of small rate reductions, it's important to remember how quickly the mood can change, and potentially deliver a blow to mortgage borrowers.”

Stephen Perkins of Yellow Brick Mortgages: “Should the Bank of England raise the base rate on August 3? No, but will they? Almost certainly, especially now that the US Federal Reserve have raised theirs whilst in a better economic position. The Bank of England will just keep beating the same drum and hoping for a different tune.”

Graham Cox, founder of SelfEmployedMortgages Hub: “The US Dollar has fallen against other currencies, including Sterling, in recent weeks, which makes imports more expensive and is therefore inflationary. So the Fed increasing the base rate by 0.25 per cent may be an attempt to protect the currency from further weakness. I don't know that this changes the Bank of England's outlook significantly.”