Renewed momentum expected despite subdued first quarter
Total completions in the bridging market could reach £8bn by the end of the year, despite a slowdown in the first quarter of 2026, according to Octane Capital. However, that’s down from 2025’s £10bn figure.
The company believes that renewed momentum is on its way, after bridging completions hit £1.8bn during the first quarter of 2026, a -26.5% reduction versus the final quarter of 2025 and a -35.7% annual decline compared to Q1 last year.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, said that the slowdown followed an exceptional period of expansion for the bridging market, with annual completions increasing from £5.76bn in 2023 to £7.34bn in 2024, before surpassing £10bn for the first time in 2025 at an estimated £10.03bn.
The 2026 forecast is therefore down from 2025 but would still be 39% higher than the £5.76bn recorded in 2023, he points out.
Fundamentals remain strong
The company analysed bridging completion data over the previous 24 months, using an ETS exponential smoothing forecasting model, accounting for seasonality and based on a middle bound confidence interval, to forecast where the market could stand by the end of 2026.
Samuels said the fundamentals of bridging finance were still strong. “Borrowers still require speed and certainty, investors need the flexibility to act when opportunities arise and developers increasingly require funding solutions that can accommodate more complex project and exit timelines,” he said.
“So, whilst 2026 may prove to be a year of recalibration for the wider market rather than one of record-breaking growth, bridging finance remains firmly established as a vital part of the property finance landscape.”
