HMRC figures show a 4% fall as buyers fear increased costs

Seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell 4% annually in September compared to last year, according to the latest HMRC figures. They fell less than 1% relative to August 2026, decreasing from 95,300 to 94,800.

The figures, which represent completions on average two to four months after an initial offer is made on a property, show a lack of confidence in government policy, according to Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance.

He said: “Seeing a further drop in seasonally-adjusted transactions once again reaffirms the lack of confidence in the government as buyers and sellers fear increased costs and rising interest rates, deterring them from transacting.”

First-time buyer affordability issues

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said affordability issues would continue to be a problem – including for first-time buyers.

“The Budget’s confirmation of a new First Time Buyer ISA and an equity loan scheme, alongside changes to the Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge, is a welcome recognition of the barriers facing people trying to get onto the property ladder. While these measures could help improve confidence and support longer-term saving, they do not remove the wider affordability challenges facing first-time buyers, particularly when it comes to raising a deposit and securing a mortgage,” he said.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said he believed the fact that the new Your First Home scheme won’t come into effect until next year could also impact buyer confidence. “Delay to the introduction of the Government’s new Your First Home scheme until next Spring will mean transactions will decline further while aspiring first-time buyers continue to delay taking that crucial first step onto the housing ladder,” he said.