Members of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association are expecting this year to be a challenging one.
IMLA conducted a member survey in December which revealed expectations.
By the end of this year, IMLA members expect inflation to fall 2% to 4%. Expectations for gross mortgage lending are at no more than £130bn in 2012 (down from the likely £138bn outturn for 2011) and members also expect unemployment levels to remain high, with the risk of further deterioration.
Peter Williams, IMLA executive director, said: “The survey results may look negative but represent a realistic outlook for the year ahead and remind us that we are still in very challenging times for the economy.
“The mortgage market remains very limited, which is why intermediaries can play such an important role to help inform consumers about the best products available and what is right for them.
“Matching lenders and products to consumers is crucial to ensure sustainable lending and improve the market.
“Council of Mortgage Lenders figures show that intermediaries accounted for nearly two-thirds of sales – 64% of first-time buyer loans, 57% of remortgage loans and 52% of home mover loans – during the third quarter of 2011.”
He said that whilst this year might look gloomy, the five-year view from IMLA members is somewhat more optimistic.
By 2016, members are expecting base rates to have risen to 2.83% and the average price of a UK home to be around £178.3k. In November 2011, the price was around £163k according to CML figures.
Members are confident that the role of the intermediary will remain important, and expect intermediaries to hold 59% of the first-time buyer market, 60% of the remortgage market, 51% of the home mover market and 82% of the buy-to-let market by 2016.