Expert predicts trouble for Rachel Reeves as CGT receipts drop

Expert predicts trouble for Rachel Reeves as CGT receipts drop


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Stacked coins with a house-shaped sign saying Property Tax.
Stacked coins with a house-shaped sign saying Property Tax.

HM Revenue and Customs data shows that Capital Gains Tax receipts for 2025 were £13.646 billion.

This is down from £14.900 billion in 2024 – a fall of 8.4 per cent.

Jason Hollands, managing director at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners, comments: “Taxpayers are swerving this and the previous government’s crackdown on capital gains by sitting tight and deferring disposals, suggesting the futility of over-taxing investors and business owners.

“The CGT data from not just today, but the last few years and through history, suggests that investors either bring forward decisions ahead of anticipated changes or are deterred from crystallising gains afterwards, or both. 

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Hollands says this exposes the trouble with increasing the CGT burden, and adds: “Investors will change their plans and behaviour accordingly to avoid paying tax where they feel it is too high. In many cases, a more aggressive tax environment leads to lower rather than higher revenues.

“Investors – and CGT receipts – have had time to absorb the slashing of the CGT annual exemption from £12,300 in 2022/23 to just £3,000 in 2024/25 under the previous Conservative government. 

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“Sure enough, the receipts data reveals little or no benefit to the Treasury coffers from this step. 

“Final revenue data shows that CGT brought in £16.93 billion in 2022/23, £14.50 billion in 2023/24 and just £13.06 billion in 2024/25 – and these latest receipts figures suggest that downward trend could continue.

‘Indeed, the only significant consequence is likely to have been distorting and disincentivising effects on investment and business decisions.”

And Hollands says the data does not bode well for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ hopes that her CGT rate hikes will bolster the public purse over the coming years.

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