The end of low-cost mortgage deals piling pressure on homeowners
The pool of potential off-market property opportunities is growing, with more than 21,000 homeowners across England and Wales now showing signs of pressure that could prompt them to sell before ever listing their property through traditional channels, according to analysis by eXp UK.
It analysed data from GalimAI, which monitors public records covering more than one million UK property owners and which tracks factors including expiring low-rate mortgages, EPC compliance, insolvency, probate, tribunal decisions, vacancy and leverage to identify homeowners most likely to sell before reaching the open market.
London under pressure
Of the estimated 21,669 homeowners currently under pressure across ten major cities, London accounts for the largest share with 13,105 properties – the equivalent of more than £7.1bn of residential stock.
London is also home to the largest number of homeowners whose low-cost mortgage deals secured during 2021 are due to expire this year, with an estimated 4,128 owners facing the prospect of refinancing at considerably higher rates.
A further 1,759 landlords own properties that currently fall below the required EPC standard ahead of the proposed 2030 deadline, while another 7,218 homeowners are flagged due to other pressure indicators monitored by GalimAI.
Outside of London, Manchester is in second place with 2,188 homeowners under pressure, including more than two-thirds (1,517) of whom face the end of cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals this year and a further 664 landlords needing to upgrade to meet EPC upgrade requirements.
Nottingham has 1,365 potential off-market opportunities, followed by Birmingham (1,215), Liverpool (1,116) and Leeds (1,009). Newcastle (534), Bristol (411), Sheffield (378) and Cardiff (348) also have a high concentration of homeowners under pressure.
Based on current average house prices, the estimated value of these potential off-market opportunities exceeds £9bn across the ten cities analysed.
‘Fascinating insight’
Adam Day, Head of eXp UK and Europe, said: “Not every homeowner identified by this research will decide to sell, but it provides a fascinating insight into where tomorrow’s housing supply could emerge before it ever reaches the open market.
“The combination of higher mortgage costs, changing regulation for landlords and wider financial pressures is creating circumstances where many homeowners may decide that selling is their best option over the coming months. “Historically, agents have only become involved once that decision has already been made. Increasingly, however, technology is allowing us to identify potential sellers much earlier, creating opportunities to have meaningful conversations before a property ever reaches the market.”
